Confused by the Odds: How Probability Misleads Us

Confused by the Odds will change the way you think about financial assets, the risks of the next global nuclear war, racial bias in policing, the role of genetics in intelligence, and medical tests. You will learn how to ignore flawed assumptions about the normal distribution of returns from investing in stocks and bitcoin. You will come away with a better understanding of the Long Peace--the last three-quarters of a century without a global war--and how it does not necessary bode well for the future. You'll learn that randomized control experiments, the basis for much of science today, are not the gold standard of proof that most believe them to be and why they are part of the reason for the replicability crisis in science today. You'll see how the US Navy searches for lost submarines and spam filters identify junk mail. You'll understand how Democrats and Republicans come to dramatically different conclusions about everything from the outcome of the 2020 election to COVID-19. Confused by the Odds will give you the knowledge and tools to avoid being misled by probability. Many books have been published on probability laden with dense formula and proofs. This is not one of them. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, presents intuitive explanations of the application of probability to practical, everyday problems--without all the equations. Through real-world examples, this book shows us how to never again be confused by the odds.